A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
